Umineko Mafia - Day 4

[Affinity]

@Sodium:

Sodium is laughable for blatant straw-mans and stupid contradictions in the nick of time.  Most of what you raised are good points carciatured to look bad; you indeed did have to stop defending yourself and start making cases.  Furthermore, I'm against Zakeri defeding you on D2 and 3, NOT on D1.  I could defend against all the points you have raised, but really, there's no need to because they are all blunt pencils.  For example, when did I say this?

"*Has defended Dorian despite how he said that he said Dorian was scummier then most*"

Didn't I already say that I was using his original point against Serp?  And also,

"Sodium, you're defending Dorian while saying that all his posts sucked"

Isn't this horrible logic-wise?

Your credibility after this post, a sharp turn of contrast, is also minuscle and not worthy of consideration.  Flailing is bad, I guess.  And lastly, I can't possibly focus on everyone; I focused on the two people I am most suspicious of, you and Zakeri.  I am bringing out some original points especially on my evaluation of Zakeri's posts, e.g here and for the others, there is a limit to what you can find scummy; sometimes everything is already raised and you can't do better than to concur.  Haven't you been doing exactly the same?  And haven't you been considering on Zak and Serp only before the post you last made, merely defending against everyone else?

So yeah, garbage post, which raises his scuminess since he is raising bad points in an attempt to make himself look better.

Same to Rou, who is also rather horrible at his appeals to emotion, making one whole post for the purpose of expressing his discontent.  Using the word 'we' is also rather socialist, I think, which is ironic because he makes himself to be pretty important in that post.

---

@Serp:

Serp seems quite fine to me.  The only thing that is worthy of concern to me is his posts relating Dorian, especially his opinion on Sodium afterwards that doesn't seem quite clear.  He made have made a false promise on Sodium, but I'm not inclined to accuse him as scummy for it contrary to everyone else, because he has been making cases against people he thought he was scummy from D2 and D3, and that is enough.  I don't think Sodium did anything particularly scummy up until late D3, where he sudddenly vomited; he was particularly active in questioning till then, though.  He didin't say much of Kiro either, for example, after D2, and having the entire case based around that promise is rather contradictory.

Serp, could you summarize as to what you think of Sodium now?

Other than that, some of the points he raised on Zakeri, I find rather null, especially the one about him fitting into scum behavior, and more of due to emotion than anything else.  But in any case, he seems to be 'winning' the Zak v Serp debate in my opinion.

---

@ Zak:

I shall go all Dorian and refer you to Rou's post.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Using the word 'we' is also rather socialist, I think, which is ironic because he makes himself to be pretty important in that post.

I just don't understand how Town can really be enjoying this, since it's such a precarious setup and we have no real concrete suspects anywhere. By 'we' I assumed that everyone else was having as rough a time of this as I was. Am I wrong?

[WHMZakeri]

The difference is that in LyLo, every townie player is vital.  There is no margin for error.  Scum are just one vote away from being able to fillibuster any lynchmob.  If that one vote is a lurker, or a player who says stuff like "too scummy to be scum," then the game really might as well be over.

The point is that four mislynches are four mislynches. It doesn't matter in what order they appear in. Using the Hypothetical that Dorian/Sodium is town, What exactly would be the difference between lynching Donut for not scumhunting, Having Nuke forcibly Drop out, Letting the Lynch land on Pesco, and then Lynching Sodium, Versus Lynching Dorian, Having Nuke forcibly Drop out, Lynching Donut for not scumhunting, and then letting the lynch land on Pesco? Both Scenarios end with the town losing for the exact same reason. We take the same risk of Dorian/Sodium being town as we do in lylo.

Finally, why is it exactly that you're unwilling to make a list of points you feel are solid against me? you say you agree that arguing over small points is useless, yet you stand by your belief in the case on me as nothing more than a bunch of small points put together. Why is that?

Does that make THIS vote a chainsaw defending Serp from Zak? When Zak made a chainsaw defending Sodium from Serp? Oh god, my brain hurts.

Oh, for the love of Lady Yasaka.

Last time I checked, we've spent the entire game so far Sorting out our Day 1 Lynches (180). Stop throwing around the word Chainsaw like we're any closer to finding scum than we were then.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Using the Hypothetical that Dorian/Sodium is town

You realise that assuming this makes your theory absolutely pointless, right? Because if we can assume he's Town we obviously won't want to lynch him.

But taking your example to three kills, there are apparently only two ways we could have made it here to Day 4:
- Lynch Dorian, NF drops, lynch Donut
- Lynch Donut, NF drops, lynch Pesco

Assuming the Mafia hits NF, Nietz and Kiro in that order in both instances (again a big ask) the difference is who has survived - in the first example it's Pesco, in the second it's Dorian/Sodium. But on top of that the path we didn't take gives us more chance to examine Donut's play, and therefore possibly decide whether or not he's scum.

Your logic is bad because it assumes that new information we attain in new days is completely irrelevant and we'll keep lynching the same people anyway. After we lynch Dorian it doesn't matter what we learn, we're apparently going to lynch Donut whatever happens and we'll learn absolutely nothing new from this turn of events.

So yes, the order of these lynches is actually very important, because no lynch is set in stone.

[Carthrat]

I live anew!.. and... Man, this's ridiculous on so many levels. I've been considering the case on Sodium from the start of the day. I'd indeed be lying if I said that what Rou had to say hadn't reinforced my opinion, that's how discussion frequently goes?

It's like people are falling apart simultaneously, too. Sodium's getting all 'screw it I don't care' and doesn't seem to be approaching this from the 'if I get lynched I LOSE THE GAME' perspective that a townie should. Rou's managed to utterly destroy the cool image I've always had of him, and that's kinda weird because he's not really under attack or anything, though I do get the LYLO combat stress angle. I suspected a ploy out of him, but would scum-Rou actually think it's necessary to bust out the AtE as part of some manuever the way today has been going? I sorely doubt it. @_@

##Vote: Sodium With two votes already on Sodium the die is pretty much cast here. More to the point, I'm not seeing anything but 'fuck this guys I'm outta here' from his latest posts and that's not doing anything to change my mind. If Rou and/or Affinity are the scum in this train, kudos to them, I haven't seen it.

[WHMZakeri]

So basically, everything I've said is shit because part of my case relies on people not wanting to lynch Sodium for reasons similar to why we wanted to Lynch Pesco, Nuke, and Donut? I guess the only way around this is to implicate the people who wanted to Lynch Pesco and Nuke. Oh wait, that was everyone.

If the Town is this backed up into a corner, there's really nothing left to do but fire at the dart board and congratulate scum when we land on another townie.

##Unvote: Serpentarius
##Vote: Sodium
Hammer

You can yell at me if you want for this switch, but the fact is Sodium's lynch is all but happened, and I'm really giving myself too much of a hernia trying to explain my thoughts.

[Edible]

Hammer.

STFU.

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

And everything's going to keep happening like this until you accept that I exist and believe in magic~ Isn't it wonderful? Kyahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

As the days grew on, the amount of people still alive progressively dwindled. Nevertheless, in-between periodic re-enactments of Richard Jeni's comedic acts, they still did not give up hope, believing they they could beat the witch Beatrice at her own game.

Suddenly, out of nowhere, Kanon spotted a golden butterfly sitting on Hideyoshi's head. It promptly flew away, but he knew what this meant.

"Guys, everyone. The person you're not talking to is Hideyoshi. It's really Beato herself, disguised. I had proof. Trust me on this."

"What? How could I be hidden as Beatrice? We look nothing alike. Besides, how could I have given the letter to Maria when I wasn't around then? You have it all wrong, nobody will believe you anyway."

Turns out nobody did, because they were too worried about a different member of the party, Rudolf.

"I knew it was you! You just wanted all the gold, to save your company from financial ruin! You wouldn't let anything stand in your way, even other family members! You should be ashamed of yourself."

"Who else could it be? He's obviously the only person who was around when the murders occured, he has convenient excuses for being there, or for not being with the rest of us at those times, and in general he's a very sneaky, shady guy. I agree, he's quite likely behind it all."

"Guys, guys, let's not be too hasty", Rudolf smiled and spoke, just as Hideyoshi agreed with Genji and Nanjo, who had begun the attack on Rudolf.

Finally, among all the tension, Kanon, true to his name, decided to wimp out and submit to Beatrice's terms. Rudolf Ushiromiya was the guilty party. Was this true? Everyone's fate hung in the balance.

Kyahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

Wrong again! And you know what they say about being wrong too many times in chess and life and death! It tends to shorten your life expectancy, greatly!

Everyone was stunned as another stake embedded itsself firmly in Rudolf's  leg, just as he fell over dead.

Everyone was even more stunned as a cloud of butterflies appeared around Hideyoshi, who then promptly revealed himself to be Beatrice.

"Looks like you're a worse chess player than you claim to be, Nanjo", insuinated Genji.

"Shut up", retorted a shocked Nanjo. "This was not what I was expecting to happen!"

Kyahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Surprise!

You all have been such...charming and entertaining hosts. But now it's time for this all to end. Since I won it on my terms, I get to do whatever I want~

"Uu-! And the door to the golden land will finally be open!"

That's right, Maria. We'll all be in the golden land now. All, except for the losers of this game, for it was a game with great stakes at hand, and thus, both great winnings and great penalties.

Sodium Aspartate, AKA EX NaC_4H_6NO_4, Rudolf Ushiromiya - Vanilla Townie, lynched D4!
Zakeri, Kanon - Vanilla Townie, endgamed in N4
Roukanken, Genji - Vanilla Townie, endgamed in N4
Affinity, Nanjo - Vanilla Townie, endgamed in N4

The scumteam of:
Carthrat, Hideyoshi Ushiromiya, but ACTUALLY Bernkastel, Scum Governor
and
Serpentarius, Rosa Ushiromiya, but ACTUALLY Beatrice, The Golden Witch, Scum Godwitch

Win the game! Congratulations!

Setup and play commentary in a bit, but I do have to say this: I find it highly amusing that Carthrat did not use his power role's ability at all during this entire game. Looks like we won't actually see a gov used on these forums in basically ever, at the rate we're going

[Pesco]

You guys started the day so well...

Read over confirmed players more

Congrats Sodium, you are now modconfirmed.

##Unvote

What now fellas?

Coincidence.  Scum had throwaway goofball vanilla roles too.

[Serp]

That was way closer than it should have been.  I still maintain that going after Dorian D1 was not a scummy move.  I was playing exactly as I would have as a Townie there.   In fact, I was playing it pretty straight the whole time.  Carthrat was a smooth enough operator that I didn't have to choose between overlooking him and bussing him, and every day there was a pretty clearly obvious mislynch for us to fall back on.  That's the thing with such small scum teams - as long as both players are good enough at looking pro-town on their own merits, there isn't a whole lot to distinguish them as scum.

I suggested to Carthrat during N1 that maybe we ought to let Nuke live and just go after some other player to avoid the possibility of being blocked.  The deciding factor in attacking Nuke after all was that he had voiced suspicion of Carthrat, and as it happened, he did indeed try to scan Carthrat.  Attacking Nuke ended up being the safest thing we could have done - if he got protected by the jailkeeper, then there would be no scan, and if he wasn't protected, then he'd die, and there would be no scan.  Still, I was sort of disappointed that I didn't get a chance to draw a scan to myself and earn major town cred, though that would've led to problems of its own if the protective role had died and I still didn't get NK'd.

We almost didn't go after Nietz on N2.  Initially we were going to go after Kiro, but then we figured that it might be too obvious with a jailkeeper out there, so we decided that Nietz would be our best bet.  Who did Nietz end up protecting that night?

N3 we were most concerned with leaving our best LyLo targets alive.  Looking back on it, we probably should've let Kiro live.  There was bound to be some suspicion of as infamous an obvtown player as him living all the way to LyLo.  He also seemed less likely to view Carthrat and I as suspicious.  I think Roukanken would've been a smarter choice, though it all worked out in the end.

We had agreed going into LyLo that I would push a Zakeri lynch and Carthrat would push a Sodium lynch.  Honestly, I really did think that my case was stronger.  I really wasn't expecting to be anyone's second choice for lynch, though, not even Zakeri's.

Also, is it normal to suffer crippling pangs of guilt for putting forward cases that are technically valid, but which you know to be completely false?  >_>

[Edible]

I forgot Serp was scum at one point while reading this game, FYI.

[Affinity]

That was... expertly played.  It turns out that I'm the only townie who didn't even so much as look closely at either scum, making it a little bit of a disappointment.  Kudos to Roukanken for being steady throughout the game and for putting forward a case on Serp in a LyLo and for being pretty much dependable for the entire game.  Town had too many distractions, I find, and I think that that threw everyone's scumdar off lots, leading to clear mislynches for every day.  Ho well, again, well done.

[Pesco]

I still maintain that we tend to forget what recently deceased players posted. All the WoTs had stuff from what the currently living and suspected players said. Nobody went back over and thought about why DeadTownPlayer said and did what they posted about SuspectPlayer.

[FinnKaenbyou]

The one guy who most of my suspicions revolved around turned out to actually be Town

Welp,

EDIT: Pesco, you fail to realise that dead Townies aren't 100% accurate. When you're dead you basically become nothing more than an opinion.

[Pesco]

It didn't have to just be mine, there was Kiro, Nietz and Donut's opinion which could have been considered.

[FinnKaenbyou]

Just because an opinion is earnest doesn't mean there's any point in paying attention to it. >_>

I will not lie, half the reason I was on Sodium was because I refused to accept Pesco's roleclaim clear of him. Likewise for his suspicions of Carth. In general I just have a complete hatred for gut because it isn't endorsed by SCIENCE.

[Pesco]

Mindhax > Logic

 :V

[Nietz]

I forgot Serp was scum at one point while reading this game, FYI.

And I still believe Pesco forgot he wasn't scum while playing the game. :V

I suggested to Carthrat during N1 that maybe we ought to let Nuke live and just go after some other player to avoid the possibility of being blocked.  The deciding factor in attacking Nuke after all was that he had voiced suspicion of Carthrat, and as it happened, he did indeed try to scan Carthrat.  Attacking Nuke ended up being the safest thing we could have done - if he got protected by the jailkeeper, then there would be no scan, and if he wasn't protected, then he'd die, and there would be no scan.

Wait... you're talking from hindsight or you knew there was a jailkeeper in the setup beforehand?

We almost didn't go after Nietz on N2.  Initially we were going to go after Kiro, but then we figured that it might be too obvious with a jailkeeper out there, so we decided that Nietz would be our best bet.  Who did Nietz end up protecting that night?

I blocked Carthrat.
I would've protectet myself if my role allowed, since I was fairly suspicious I would be targeted. Carth was my best bet for sending the scum NK (after pesco, who seemed just too obvious a RB target), because of the way he freaked out when NF woke up alive and with an attempted scan on him. He literally went from "Let's be cautious and not lynch the claimed cop so soon." to "OK, change of plans, let's lynch him NAO!".
I'm surprised nobody else noticed, I even tried to breadcrumb my suspicion at the end of Day 2.

As for Serp, yeah, not much suspicion of him the whole game, he was down there with Rou and Dorian/Sodium in the townie side of the scale.

I didn't read much of Day 4's WoTs, but lynching Sodium seemed a pretty bad choice all along, he had all the meta town tells he could possibly have on him (replaced player, flavour-confirmed, Sodium town-meta).

The flavour roles really threw me off though, I never expected they would actually be true.

Oh, and there was Fusion... Oh god, that was the worse cop play I've ever seen.

[Sodium]

I played in RWoS! I believe that gives me the power of SCIENCE! So yeah.

So When I got hammered, I was in the washroom. Seriously. Got a stomach ache while writing a "lol, I'ma be hammered soon" post, went away for thirty minutes do stuff. Then I was hammered in said 30 minutes. >_>

I pressed the self destruct button at LyLo. Sorry guys.

On a good day, Roukan, it would've been 2 for 2 instead of 0 for 2.

Also, why is Kiro always killed early in most games again?

lolNF

[Pesco]

Don't be causing unnecessary WIFOM. If I was scum, I wouldn't be as obvscum.

[Carthrat]

Y'know, Town gains nothing from the following actions

1) Being smug and self-assured and all 'you should all trust me on no grounds at all'
2) Collapsing and folding under pressure

This is just another game where scum won without needing to do anything clever or special; how I normally advocate they should play, because I so rarely find myself needing to do more.

We were lucky NF managed to tank on day 2, lucky we offed Neitz on night 2, lucky pesco felt compelled to antagonize Rou to the maximum on day 3, and lucky Sodium just failed entirely on day 4. All we had to do was play solid and tight- and I didn't even do that, not on day 2 when I adopted the lynch-NF-at-all-costs strategy and leave Serp to win alone if need be.

I was literally laughing in my chair during LYLO, mostly because Zakeri and Rou scared the shit out of me earlier, and then everything trundled towards Sodium afterwards. You can't just fold in on yourself. There are always townies around who advocate lynching the weak, and always scum who are happy enough to go down that course. It's important to aim for maximum manliness all the time, because 'he's waffling/not giving an opinion/not playing the game' are such easy marks. If you're known to do this, you'll keep finding yourself getting lynched, never NK'd.

As for trusting dead townies, all you know about a dead townie is that he was sincere in what he said. That doesn't make him any more correct.

Addendum: There are two parts to town! One is being smart and finding scum. The other is communicating this to others. Thought of the day~

[Carthrat]

Also, we killed Kiro because he's scary.

Actually I thought Rou would tunnel on *someone* who wasn't us and help us win. Imagine my surprise when he does a list of scumpairs and goes 'CARTH/SERP' first.

Affinity was an okay backup choice of lynch if sodium or zak somehow pulled through.

Kiro... how the hell do you lynch Kiro, and what odds are there of him going off half-cocked? >_<

[FinnKaenbyou]

Carth/Serp
Serp makes little/no mention of Carth as a suspect for the whole game, but despite this feels the need to point out 'Pesco-Carth scumpair is unlikely' during D3. Why?
Carth lumps Serp in with Affinity - THIS IS V. IMPOTANT IF CARTH IS SCUM, as is makes it hard for us to choose his potential buddy. On the other hand he was at odds with him over Dorian and the NF lynch D1 so yeah, this is less likely.

why did i drop this pair based on one stupid argument from day 1 aaaaaaaaaaah

[Carthrat]

We're at odds with each other over a lynch that wasn't either of us or a buddy, yeah, that argument was throwaway. Made easier by the fact that it seems we both believed our respective positions. >_>

Also, happy birthday, Rou! :3

[Edible]

Yeah, the night Nietz died I actually made scum specify which was doing the kill.  I would have died laughing if Nietz's block went through on the kill that night.

Wait... you're talking from hindsight or you knew there was a jailkeeper in the setup beforehand?

They figured it out Day 2 after their kill failed AND the cop's result was roleblocked while neither of them were RBs themselves.  Town just assumed it was a roleblocker.

[Carthrat]

As Serp said, yeah, we figured if either of us was getting blocked it was me. >_>

We knew NF was (probably) not lying about being a cop and so he had to die. If it failed, well, shit, but what else can you do there? Cop/Doc in this setup would've crushed us. Jailer was a good choice, I liked how the setup fit together in general.

and yeah gms let's try to keep clarifications and stuff private instead of public unless absolutely necessary

also more allowing scum to chat during day plz :D:D:D:D:D I miss that so much

[Pesco]

Wait for my game if you want scum daytalk.

[Kiro]

The mods can confirm this, but I actually guessed Carth and Serp as the scumpair after I was NK'ed (It's true, he did). You should have let me live, it would have been more fun for you guys. I always seem to be a half-phase too late on these guesses.

I was 95% certain Carth was Scum after the Pesco flip. How you just latched onto Rou's case of Pesco on Day 1, the quick switch to NF on Day 2 and the quick vote on Pesco on Day 3... all of it without any of your own original points. Your lack of input Day 3 after Pesco was teetering at L-2 or L-1 stood out. I was going to call you out for who your second choice of lynch would be, but I didn't want to draw attention to myself as an NK target. But I guess that never works. I should have pressed harder on that while I still could and force you to converse with us.

Serp edged out Affinity as my second choice. After Pesco's flip, my case on Zakeri pretty much fell apart (Zak being the swing from what I thought was ScumPesco to TownDonut) and I pegged Zakeri as Town. That heightened my suspicion on Serp who had pegged Zakeri as his second choice of lynch after Pesco. Serp also coasted through Day 3 without much input and his wanting to lynch the lurker on Day 1 also felt "lazy" as well. Also Affinity's responses to me felt ok and I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because he was contributing more at the time.

I was surprised and had my hopes up when Zak voted Serp on Day 4, I was expecting Carthrat to be an easier lynch. However, I was disappointed that Town decided to focus on what people said rather than how people voted. As we can make the case with all the mislynches this game, Townies can and do stay stupid scummy shit all the time. That never means they're actually scum. Conversely, Scum can say Townie stuff like "don't lynch the copclaim on Day 1", but that doesn't mean they're Town either. I guess Affinity didn't like it, but my way of doing things is to look at the votes more and speculate on the reasons why they would do it from a Town or Scum perspective. Sometimes the pieces click together better that way after we see some flips, particularly when the scummy looking Pesco got lynched as expected but flipped Town. It was so easy for Scum to push the Pesco mislynch and I saw Carth and Serp both do that. I was sad that Sodium got lynched because I thought he was Townie midway through Day 3 even after he buckled under pressure by unvoting Pesco Day 3 and part of his Day 4.

The big problem in this game is that NF and Pesco were so outlandish that I was unable to ignore them and had to get on their lynches. We lost 2 whole Days due to this and I've already told Pesco, but I'm more mad at him than NF because Pesco should know that Mafia is a team game and not do stupid shit like that. NF is only a first time offender although it was about as bad as you can get.

[Carthrat]

You realise I'm never going to let you live if I'm scum and you're town, now, christ. >_<

[?lice Bl?ckb?rn]

@Pesco: that wasn't a mod-confirmation you git, and even if it was, it only confirmed flavour, not alignment. Need I remind you that, while figuring out correctly who the two scum actually WERE post-lynch, all you did IN THE GAME was be a generally horrible distraction to Town? I mean really.

@Serp: Nietz wound up jailkeeping (not protecting - a jailkeeping is a protect+an RB) Carthrat N2, which is why I found it amusing that you suddenly switched to sending in NKs after N1 when Carthrat sent it in instead.

Also, if you're getting pangs of guilt, you're doing it wrong

Anyway, mod comments on the game!

Scum play was in general very good. Both Carthrat and Serpentarius have very good, distinct playstyles, and both were instrumental in securing an easy win for Scum in this game. Then again, this game didn't really need elaborate gambits or excellent debating skills - all that was needed was the ability to look like a Townie and harness the Town's horrible amounts of confusion and noise (this may be one of the worst mafia games I've ever seen when it comes to crappy SNR) to destroy them, which both Scum did excellently. Honestly, both of them were pretty good, so they both get a Co-MVP

One thing that I'm going to bring up again, is that Carthrat never actually used his power. I'm still quite amused by this, especially since it was a very GOOD one for scum. Meh.

Town on the other hand...

First off, I vote that Nucleaire Fusion gets a temporary ban from the next 5 mafia games, if not indefinetly. Seriously, that was just rage-inducing. ANYWAY.

Scummy Townies all around was basically what happened this game. Guys, is it that hard to look like a damn Townie when you ARE a damn Townie? It could have made this game go completely differently if you guys weren't practically leaping into the noose yourselves.

Not sure about Town MVP. Nietz deserves some cred for guessing Carth N2, Zakeri deserves some cred for catching Serp as scum, even if it's for slightly questionable reasons.